Cont..An investor's $204,000 Mistake (Part 6)

"Learn from the mistakes of others. You can't live long enough to make them all yourself"

              -Eleanor Roosevelt US diplomat & reformer  (1884 - 1962)

" In the stock market, history repeats itself. This is because human nature rarely changes"

               - William J. O'Neil (Founder of Investor's Business Daily)

                          Research Results were conclusive: New Market Discovery

After weeks of testing and experimenting with the numbers,  I made a very profitable discovery.  Research results showed  that a positive link exists between five key economic indicators- which i now call 'vital signs'-  and future price trends for the San Diego real estate market.

How accurate were the research results?

These five Vital Sign indicators correctly anticipated and 'signaled' every major market peak- and every major market bottom- in the San Diego real estate market since 1982.

I felt like a wildcatter who had just struck oil.  After this historical research. I had  mathematical proof that the real estate market does indeed ' tip its hand' and give off clear
signals about impending trend changes in the marketplace.  My conclusions were not based on economic theory or black magic.  These vital sign indicators had proven their value by passing the supreme test of real-world experimentation. In other words, they work.

Ranking them from strongest to weakest , here is the general order in which the vital sign indicators will usually (but not always) 'lead' the market trends:

1. Existing home sales
2. New Home building permits
3. Mortgage load defaults
4. Foreclosure sales
5. Interest rates

The End.    

Note from Ian: I have already started to track some of these indicators for the Reno-Sparks home market. rea                                  

Resource: 'Timing the Real Estate Market' By: Robert M. Campbell pages 42-48