Hope and fear

"People hope when they should fear and fear when they should hope"

This statement really hit home for me after experiencing for myself the financial meltdown that occurred in the last four years.  

And knowing what to do is not a walk in the park.  Ever since we started school we have been trained to be like everybody else.  While there are good things we can get from the crowd, there are far more exciting things in store for us when we rise up from the crowd. 

What I'm talking about here is not based on bravado.  Facts and intuition play a huge part in determining whether it's time to fear or time to hope.

Back in early 2006 when I realized I made a mistake in my personal investments (bought too late) I immediately called an emergency meeting with investors I was working with.  I told them bluntly, that we need to cut our losses short.  I tried my best to explain to them that the time for hoping was over and now is the time to fear.

Fortunately they listened.  Even at that point it was still hard to talk them about cutting their losses short, for there was no win-win situation anymore.  No matter path we chose were going to lose money.  The question was, how much money did we prefer losing.

The media by this time were giving hints of a real estate meltdown but none were bold enough to declare a topping of the market.  This is one of the hardest obstacles to overcome.  I realized, we have become so dependent on the media that it becomes a confirmation, a sage if you will, in our business dealings.  My stand on the media has never changed:  We cannot depend on them in regards to our financial future. They're  chronically late in informing us news that will benefit us.

So for the million dollar question:  when will it be time to hope again? Now.  Let be clear with this.  Be on the lookout for markets that are beginning to experience heavy spikes in demand.  That have stable median prices stable median prices  In short, look for stability.  For the markets that are showing stability today will be the ones leading the Reno real estate market tomorrow.

And lastly, in determining whether to hope or fear, the market will be your best friend.  Spend a few hours going through this blog, if there are things that remain vague to you, call me and I'll try my best to answer your questions.(Joe: 775-338-7653)