PUNDITS AND EXPERTS: ARE RIGHT--FIFTY PERCENT OF THE TIME (AT BEST)

"Analysts expect..."

"Wall street insider says hold on..."

"Morgan Stanley economist downgrades stock..."

"Chief economist for NAR expects market to bottom by 2007..."

"Nancy Grace says man needs harsher punishment..."

"Moody's downgrades stock to AA rating..."

We can't escape them.  They're on T.V, newspapers, internet and airport TV's.

After keeping a close ear on them (real estate and stock market analysts) the last five years I judge that they have a fifty percent chance of being right.   And I'm being generous.

Reality is we only have twelve hours of productive time (outside sleeping, eating, pit stops) and it is hard to read everything we need to know to make the best decisions.  So we depend on other's opinion--anywhere from should we watch Star Trek to when is the best time to buy a house.

So I'm not hating on pundits.  I'm offering a word of caution.  Be careful.  They're not as smart as they look.

Question everything.  Not for argument's sake but for understanding (illumination).

And you will go far.