The Reno real estate market is neither liberal or conservative; optimist or cynic; white or black; friend or foe

The market is neither liberal or conservative; optimist or cynic; white or black; friend or foe. 

The market is the sum of all our fears and hope.  It doesn't have a mind of its own, it merely exposes human nature's deep wants (greed) and needs (fear).  It doesn't keep a record of wrongs. Market knows no favoritism.

And because human nature hardly ever changed, the market has been behaving predictably the same throughout the years.

An intelligent woman sent me a letter:

"Hi, I like your optimism, but have you read the economic forecasts for Nevada and California?  Real estate in Reno is still way overpriced and needs to come down. 

Right now is a terrible time to buy, unless you have no problem losing your hard earned money. 

I think the subprime mortgages are going to hit hard in 2009 and 2010.  There will be a flood of foreclosures coming onto the market, not to mention the number of foreclosures backed up at the courthouses. "

Absolutely. What she talked about could happen.  But to say that "Real estate in Reno is still way overpriced and needs to come down.  Right now is a terrible time to buy, unless you have no problem losing your hard earned money."

My question is what price range are you talking about?

Current Reno home prices are still falling but demand is INCREASING ($140K - $190K most especially), inventory is at.  This was the cause for my optimism.  Yet I refused to call a market bottom.  Median prices are still on a downward trend. 

The market was selling homes at a rapid rate and supply can hardly keep up.  This is for the $200,000 and below price range.  Anything above it seems to be still going down at a fast rate.

That's not my opinion.  That's what the market is doing.

The great thing about following the market is after watching for a good amount of time, it will give you great clues on what it'll do next.  This is the reason why back in 2006, 2007 and 2008 I was saying the market is still going down, regardless of price range.  Demand was paltry.  Supply was pale.  Median price was on a nose dive.  It wasn't a hard call.

The problem with having a strong opinion (what's going to happen VS what's happening) is we get attached to that opinion--and making it much harder to be objective. 

Back in 2007 well known real estate professionals and managers in Reno declared "we're almost at the bottom."  Last summer a smart reader from another local blog declared a bottoming of real estate prices by January of 2009.

Both prophecies failed miserably.

The market does not care who we are, or the hard earned initials we have beside our names.  It will do what it wants. Regardless.

So why argue with it?

When people give kind comments to this blog, I simply point them back to the market.  "Thank-you but I simply pointed you to the real thing."