This was a headline in our local paper last Sunday. It went on to report:
"Falling home prices continued to negatively affect the local residential real estate market, with 51,879 properties with an active mortgage currently upside down in Reno-Sparks during the first quarter of this year, according to data provider CoreLogic. The number means that 54.4 percent of residential properties with a mortgage had borrowers who owed more on their homes than the properties were worth."
It helps to validate the report that a third party independent firm Corelogic spearheaded the research. After more than 5 years, I think it's safe to say, there's still no bottom in sight. It's very frustrating that it doesn't have to be this way, if only the banks had a better system in funneling distressed homes through short sales and foreclosures -- if all else fails. That's the key: IF. ALL. ELSE. FAILS. Foreclosures should be the last resort.
After 5 years of falling real estate market, the loan originators (banks, investment firms) continue to beat already low expectations on how they handle distressed properties. I mention this in previous posts that demand for Reno-Sparks real estate is not depressed! Lack of demand is not the reason why our market is down.
I noticed this healthy demand trend as early as 2007 which was the basis for my wrong prognosis of a coming Reno-Sparks real estate bottom. I thought the bottom was close because demand outpaced supply by a good margin. But it did not happen like I thought because this real estate downturn defies previously dependable economic laws like supply and demand, I underestimated the effect of the domino effect of distressed properties. This market became so bloated and unsustainable that it created a real estate monster that continues to wreak havoc: the domino effect of foreclosures in overall home values.
Nobody can stop the oncoming tide of foreclosures especially in this type of economy. But I believe you can limit its ill effects: Banks giving homeowners a price break, be it in monthly payment or even principal; banks prioritizing short sales over foreclosures (people are making offers left and right but banks routinely reject offers below their "Bank Priced Opinion"), and working with local government to find a way to help homeowners stay at their house. Because one thing I've discovered, a lot of these homeowners want to stay at their house even though values are "upside-down". That's their house and given the choice, they would rather stay. Banks and local legislators should put that in consideration and work from there. It's not going to be a win-win situation, both already lost, but the key now is cutting losses short.
Our market's fate hinges on that.
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Joe, good stuff here.
I actually think we are very close to the bottom in the Reno/Sparks area.
My question for you is how you think about the potential massive wave of homes from retiring baby boomers will effect the market? With 40% of boomers estimated to have no savings, many may be selling their homes to just downsize or to finance their retirement.
Michael,
(Sorry for the late response..for some reason it escaped me.)
I think it'll be a factor, how big of a factor? My guess is as good as yours. One thing I know is that Nevada is in the top 3 States in migration of retirees. Assisted living and retiree homes, so far as I can see, are doing alright even in this Great Recession.
We'll have to wait and see.