'm going to start with what I've seen the past seven years. And maybe we can find some helpful articles and facts that may or may not support my personal observations.
San Francisco and nearby cities, and the health of their local economies, sure seem to have a significant impact on the Reno housing market. But by now much?
A little flashback:
in the last peak in the Reno real estate market -- around 2005, more than a few observant locals remarked that the only reason Reno can afford to put out such "expensive" housing is due to California home buyers, most of them point to home buyers from San Francisco who are looking for cheaper investments and a relaxed retirement and no state income tax.
Here's a cool graph (MLS Sales): San Francisco Housing Market Cycles
, 1982 to 2014.
(Click on graph to enlarge.)Even better,
here's the Case-Shiller San Francisco home price index from 1982- 2014:(*Note:San Francisco areas covered here: San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda, Contra Costa. House sales over $850,000)Some interesting facts:
- Since 1996-2001 SF housing market surged 100%.
- After the dotcom bubble "pops" in 2001, home values declines by a mere 10%.
- Not long after that, the SF housing market goes back to its old ways -- 54% increase from 2002 to 2008.
- By 2006 to 2008 the San Francisco housing market started to overheat "depending on location".
- September 2008 -- housing market 'crashes' at about 25% of peak value.
- 2007 to 2011 -- stagnation. Home prices decline from 15% to 45%, depending on what neighborhood.
- 2012 to present: RECOVERY. In a big way.
Looking at the above graph, housing bubble "burst" might not even be the correct term. It looks like the SF market corrected, followed by another sustained upward movement.
Here's the Reno housing market graph
we've followed through the years 1979 to 2012:
(Click on image to enlarge)
Demand for Reno Real Estate Housing: 2005 to 2013
As you probably noticed the graph stopped at 2012. I could tell you that from 2012, the Reno real estate market been on a similar upward direction in home values. One of the best appreciation in the nation. But...
- Through the San Francisco Internet Bubble Years of 1996-2001, our local Reno housing market stayed perfectly normal. While the SF market went up 100% in those years, Reno did not even break the 10% per year appreciation until 2012.
- 2001 to 2006 Reno housing went up as high as can be--the best appreciation by far, since 1979. Same as SF's.
- The Drop: Reno home values declined EARLIER -- much earlier -- than San Francisco's. By 2005, Reno home values was already losing strength -- fast. While SF didn't decline as much until 2008. Interesting stuff.
- By 2012, Reno was on a clear path of recovery. Similar to San Francisco -- but not that similar. As SF, based from the graph above, SF home values went even higher than previous real estate highs.
We're not quite there yet.I will leave it to you dear reader
to form your own summary here. Frankly, I'm still digesting.